Food Security Maps For Planning

Climate forecast modeling can now be used to develop Food Outlook models in East Africa. These food models are now used to develop future food maps (pre-rain season) that can help in mitigation planning therefore enabling timely food interventions. This development will enable scientific modeling to forecast severity of drought and famine in East African countries. This will go a long way in helping to prevent famine and enable African governments to address and cope with future food scarcity.

By Patrick Luganda
in Nairobi, Kenya.
The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is periodically faced with droughts leading to acute food shortages in many countries in the region. Governments are faced with the uncertainty of the availability of food stocks to push them through the months of scarcity.

Scientists using climate forecast information are now able to produce food security outlooks several months in advance. Climate and food security experts from meteorological departments, ministries of agriculture and livestock meeting at the Climate Outlook Forum in Nairobi have developed a food outlook map for the sub region.

This is a refinement and value addition on the climate outlook that has been produced twice a year for the last 8 years. An expert who attended the mapping process said the analysts came up with the Food Security Outlook by factoring in the existing status of the food security situation in the region as well as the current and expected trends of food security indicators.

“These were superimposed on the GHA Climate Outlook for March, April, May (MAM) 2006 earlier produced by the climate experts in the region. The analysis was done using both process and outcome indicators of food security and at the livelihood zone and district levels,” explained Anastancia Hakuza, Head of the Early Warning Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture in Uganda.

Scientists used the Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classification (IPC) as a classification tool to ensure comparability of the predictions. “We agreed to use this as a prototype for developing a comparable regional food security outlook,” said Hakuza.

Using the IPC tool the food experts are able to distinguish five main categories of food security. These are classified as ‘generally food security’, chronically food insecure,’ ‘acute food and livelihood crisis,’ ‘humanitarian emergency’ and ‘famine/humanitarian catastrophe.’

To ensure some degree of consistency in interpretation, experts said, the IPC associates each of the five categories with international standards of outcome indicators related to food security.

“Examples of these outcome indicators include mortality, malnutrition, food access and availability, coping, displacement, livelihood assets and others,” explained Hakuza.
Colonel (Rtd) B. Wendo Director of the Regional Disaster Management Centre in Nairobi said that the group of experts is now able to develop a fairly accurate food outlook map for the region.

“This is the third time we are making the outlook mapping and the product is getting better each time. The challenge is now how the individual countries can utilize the information. The advantage is that there is good lead time to enable good mitigation planning,” said Wendo.

Wendo explained that the IPC tool in addition identifies specific meanings of early warning and puts them in the categories of ‘alert’, moderate risk’ and high risk.

“This means that when we leave this meeting we are equipped with sufficient information to start planning for food shortages as well as planning for excess food production and moving it to food deficient areas,” said Wendo.

Policy makers in the region are becoming increasingly aware of the colossal loss that extreme climate events can cause to their countries. In the past appeals to the donor community were promptly answered with food assistance to feed the food insecure.

Dr. Joseph Mukabana, Director of Kenya Meteorological Services said that climate science will continue to generate products tailored towards specific sector needs.
“With the food maps the region and the international community can make accurate planning in stocking food and mobilizing for assistance from abroad. Kenya has used this information to plan for the long drought that we have experienced. Other countries like Ethiopia have also used the same information. This information can also be used to generate income from the individual level right up to the national and regional levels,” said Mukabana.

Seasonal climate forecasts are produced by a mixed breed of experts from various science disciplines under the guidance of the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) based in Nairobi.

Climate scientists note that accurate weather prediction at both the short and long range are vital for optimum planning and management of all weather related activities like food and water management, power generation, aviation, agriculture and livestock production, road construction, health planning and others.

“Several studies in recent years have proposed that seasonal rainfall totals in the tropics have a strong relationship with pre rainfall season elements of the climate system,” says Deogratius Bamanya a forecast scientists at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre, Nairobi.

He explains that the elements of the climate systems include sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), large scale atmospheric patterns and land surface characteristics.

The African continent predominantly practices subsistence rain fed agriculture which is the mainstay of the economy. In most of the countries over 80 per cent of the population live in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture. It is therefore crucial for farmers to keep track of the rainfall patterns.

Accurate and timely seasonal rainfall forecasting is therefore vital for properly planned agricultural productivity. If the climate forecasting is accurate it will translate into accurate food outlook maps that will be beneficial to food security management at all levels including the lower household level.